Coalition math: Three seats and one former prime minister

Voters in Israel will go to the polls within 24 hours, and the outcome may hinge on a small group of legislators. Political figures are currently evaluating scenarios where the three-member Agudat Yisrael faction, led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, provides support to a government headed by an opposition leader. This arrangement could determine whether the country forms a new cabinet or returns to the ballot box for a second election.

The potential deal involves Agudat Yisrael backing an opposition-led administration in exchange for specific budgetary agreements. However, analysts note that even with this support, the government might still require votes from Arab parties to secure a majority. The idea of cooperation between Agudat Yisrael and the change bloc is not new. Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring options, including possible collaboration with Gadi Eisenkot.

These discussions have taken place against a backdrop of internal friction within United Torah Judaism. Tensions exist between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah regarding the haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the coalition's behavior, while Degel Hatorah showed a lack of confidence in the current government. Rabbi Dov Lando also sent a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to Netanyahu's bloc.

Goldknopf faces a significant hurdle in these negotiations. His voters are largely aligned with the Right. Assessments indicate that any visible support for a change bloc government could push some of his base toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This dynamic makes the final vote count uncertain and dependent on how Goldknopf manages his party's identity.

Attention is also turning to former prime minister Naftali Bennett. If neither major bloc wins enough seats to form a stable government, Bennett may influence the final shape of the coalition. One scenario involves Bennett joining a Netanyahu-led government if neither side reaches the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. This is considered a remote possibility, but some believe Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc with the Right-wing background to make such a move.

The scenario would require Bennett to shift his current base of support, a complex task given the makeup of his party. Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential figure to bridge the gap, given his history of serving as defense minister under Netanyahu. However, current assessments suggest Liberman is far from making a similar move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister.

For now, these remain political assessments rather than finalized agreements. The central issue in upcoming negotiations will be which politician is willing to move their political base to secure a majority.