Lula Wins Reelection in Brazil, Slowing Latin America's Tilt Toward Israel

Brazilians have reelected President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva, handing a defeat to center-right senator Flavio Bolsonaro and interrupting a regional trend toward warmer relations with Israel.

Lula, the left-wing leader of the Workers Party, took 51.79 percent of the valid votes. Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, received 48.21 percent. Bolsonaro has said he does not accept the result, although it is unclear how he could challenge it.

The two candidates offered sharply different approaches to Israel. Bolsonaro pledged a close diplomatic partnership and had cultivated ties with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Lula, by contrast, has become a critic of Israel's military campaign in Gaza.

Relations between Brasília and Jerusalem soured in early 2024. In January of that year, Lula's government endorsed South Africa's decision to bring a genocide case against Israel before the International Court of Justice. A month later, Lula compared the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza to Hitler's murder of the Jews, which set off a diplomatic crisis. CONIB, Brazil's Jewish umbrella organization, publicly condemned the comparison as a distortion that offended the memory of Holocaust victims and their descendants. The Holocaust Museum of Buenos Aires also criticized the remarks.

Speaking to Jewish leaders in Buenos Aires on June 28, 2026, Bolsonaro promised a major change of course. "In 2027, Brazil will not only once again have an ambassador to Israel, but will also take the step of moving its embassy to Israel's capital, Jerusalem," he said. He also praised the roughly 120,000 Jews in Brazil, describing them as people who "rank among the brightest in Brazilian medicine, industry, science, culture and business."

After Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round on Oct. 4, Netanyahu posted a message on X the next day. He congratulated Bolsonaro and wished him luck in the final round, adding that he looked forward to restoring "the extraordinary friendship between Israel and Brazil."

Brazil's result runs against developments elsewhere in the region. Since 2023, several Latin American governments have strengthened ties with Israel, in some cases undoing the policies of their predecessors.

Argentine President Javier Milei, elected in 2023, makes support for Israel central to his foreign policy and meets with families of hostages abducted by Hamas in its Oct. 7, 2023, raid on Israel, which started the current war. Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz Pereira, elected in 2025, restored diplomatic relations that his predecessor had severed. In Honduras, President Nasry Asfura, also elected in 2025, immediately recognized Israel's new ambassador, a process his predecessor had left in limbo.

Chilean President José Antonio Kast, elected in 2025, is rebuilding ties that his predecessor had diminished. Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, elected in May, restored diplomatic relations severed by his predecessor, sent his foreign minister to inaugurate an embassy in Jerusalem and withdrew Colombia from the ICJ genocide case against Israel.