Gina Hinojosa Races Greg Abbott in Texas as Latina Voters Reassess Trump Support

Cynthia Villareal voted for Donald Trump in 2024, trusting his promises of lower gas prices and border security. Now, the 43-year-old mother of four says those promises have not materialized. She drives across the Rio Grande Valley supervising home health aides and feels the cost of every fuel surge. Her workforce includes many immigrants without permanent status who face scrutiny under the current administration. Villareal noted that gas prices have not gone down at all, and her workers are leaving families without support.

Her experience reflects a broader shift among Latina voters in Texas. While Latinas moved rightward in the last four presidential cycles, they are now registering higher levels of regret regarding their support for the president. A survey by UnidosUS found that 23 percent of Latinas have trouble meeting expenses, compared to 17 percent of Latino men. Almost a third of Latinas who voted for Trump in 2024 expressed regret, a rate seven points higher than that of Latino men. Young Latinas show the sharpest shift, with 42 percent saying they would not vote for Trump again.

This demographic is central to the upcoming midterm elections. Latinos comprise at least 15 percent of the population in six of the 17 most competitive congressional districts. In Texas, their votes could decide the governor's race and the U.S. Senate seat. Gina Hinojosa, a Democrat, is locked in a dead heat with three-term Governor Greg Abbott. Hinojosa describes herself as a populist focused on corruption and rising costs. She emphasizes her identity as the first governor from the Rio Grande Valley, a region that has voted Democratic for five generations but shifted right recently.

Hinojosa uses the phrase “No te dejes,” meaning to know your worth and defend it, to connect with voters. She says the message resonates strongly with Latinas. At campaign events in September, voters like Juanita Vallejo and Rosie Hernandez cited Hinojosa’s stance on public schools and her willingness to stand up to the president as motivating factors. However, national Democrats have been hesitant to fund her race fully. The Democratic Governors Association sent $1 million to the contest after a group of influential Latino Democrats pressured Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear to invest more.

The stakes extend beyond Texas. Latinas report higher financial stress and less optimism about the economy than their male counterparts. They are also more likely to oppose policies like ending birthright citizenship and increasing funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement. A New York Times/Siena poll found that only one-third of Hispanic voters approve of the administration’s handling of immigration. With Latino turnout historically lower than that of White and Black voters, nearly 6 million eligible Latinas did not vote in 2024. Turning out this group is a primary challenge for Democrats in November.

Cecilia Hernández, who founded the local group Somos STARR, said voters are moving away from extreme positions. She reports hearing that many residents are in the middle, not wanting to be seen as far right or far left. Stephanie Valencia of Equis Research said Latina women may help decide the control of the House of Representatives. Hinojosa continues to hold town halls in Spanish, aiming to engage a constituency that feels the weight of rising grocery bills and a tough job market.