Martin to Commission Study on Retaining Stormont in United Ireland

Forty-seven percent of Northern Ireland residents currently support the Union with Great Britain, a figure that underscores the distance to a majority for unification. This statistic comes from a LucidPoll survey released last month, which also found that 35% of voters back a united Ireland and 18% remain undecided.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin will bring a memo to Cabinet on Thursday to establish a new commission. The panel, organized by the Department of the Taoiseach, will examine three specific constitutional options: the current status quo, a unitary state, or a united Ireland that retains a devolved Assembly for the six counties.

Irish Times Political Editor Pat Leahy called the move Martin’s most significant intervention in the unity debate since he took office six years ago. Leahy noted that Martin has faced criticism from Sinn Féin and other unity proponents for what they view as a lack of interest or action in preparing for a united Ireland.

Leahy described the focus on keeping Stormont as an interesting departure. Many nationalists have long advocated for a unitary state, where the six counties are fully integrated into the Republic rather than kept as a distinct region. The commission’s inclusion of the devolved option suggests Martin may view this as the most likely shape for a united Ireland in the short term.

Maintaining the Assembly would allow for a transition period while difficult integration issues are resolved. Leahy listed education, health, crime, security, and defense as the key areas requiring careful management. A devolved structure could also make the prospect of unification more palatable to some members of the unionist community.

Under the Good Friday Agreement, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland must call a border poll if it appears that a majority of voters in the six counties support unification. The new commission will not determine the date of such a poll but will provide the government with a detailed analysis of the practical implications of each constitutional future.