43 million Americans cast ballots ahead of November 3 election

More than 43 million Americans have cast their ballots in the upcoming midterm elections. This figure was reported as of Thursday, with the general election scheduled for Tuesday, November 3. The results will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years.

Mike McDonald, who directs the University of Florida Election Lab, states that the daily voting rate has reached between four and five million ballots. This pace exceeds the rates seen in most previous midterm cycles. The data indicates that overall turnout is currently on track to surpass the levels recorded in 2020. It may also beat the 2018 election, which held the record for highest midterm turnout since 1914.

Texas has recorded the highest above-average turnout rate. McDonald notes that the state has already surpassed its 2022 voter numbers by approximately 1.75 million people. More than 5.8 million ballots have been cast in Texas. The state is viewed as a key battleground that could decide Senate control for the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency.

States that require voters to register with a political party show an increase in Democratic ballots. Republican early voting numbers remain generally similar to those from 2022. Data from Thursday indicates that 44% of early ballots were cast by Democrats. Republicans accounted for 31.2%, while 24.7% came from voters with no party affiliation. These percentages apply only to the roughly half of states that mandate party registration.

North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida require voters to submit their race when registering. Data from these three states shows an increase in votes from Hispanic and black communities. Voting among white voters is currently on par with 2022 early voting figures. McDonald explains that this aligns with typical coalition structures, as communities of color often align with the Democratic Party while white voters often align with the Republican Party.

Texas does not require voters to list their party or race. However, data shows a surge in voting in border counties with Mexico. These counties are composed of more than 90% Hispanic residents. McDonald observes that some of these counties may beat their 2022 turnout during the early voting period alone.

The rise in early voting has been driven by expanded options since the pandemic. In 2020, more than two-thirds of all ballots were cast early, with half of those sent by mail. McDonald reports that voters now prefer in-person early voting and are returning ballots earlier than in past cycles. He attributes this shift to concerns about postal voting, though he notes there is no definitive data on the cause. Minneapolis set an early voting record for a non-presidential election on Thursday.

Early voting will end in the days before November 3 as states implement their respective cutoffs.