59 Million Votes Cast: Democrats Hold 10-Point Lead as Midterm Count Begins
With more than half the ballots already submitted, Republicans rely on heavy Election Day turnout to save their House majority and keep the Senate close.
By Chloe Martin ·
More than 59 million Americans have already cast ballots for the 2026 midterms. That figure represents nearly half of the total votes recorded in the previous midterm cycle. Early voting data shows Democrats holding a double-digit advantage. The race now hinges on in-person turnout in red states and districts.
Democrats are favored to take control of the House of Representatives. They need to flip just three seats to claim a majority. The political environment has shifted in their favor over the past month. Republicans attempted to protect their positions through rare mid-decade redistricting. Analysts say that effort is unlikely to preserve the chamber for the GOP.
The Senate outcome remains uncertain. Democrats must flip four seats to gain control, a goal that seemed unlikely at the start of the cycle. Strong Democratic candidates and a difficult political environment for Republicans have made that scenario possible. Democrats are favored to win one seat in North Carolina. The remaining five competitive seats are currently held by Republicans in states President Trump won by double digits in 2024, excluding Maine.
Republicans are focusing their efforts on turning out their base in red states ahead of polls closing. Michigan is their top target. If Republicans win Michigan, the path for Democrats to control the Senate changes significantly. High Republican turnout could limit Democratic gains to a single seat. Low turnout among GOP voters could result in Democrats flipping six or seven seats.
Polls will close throughout the day, with vote counting starting at 6 p.m. ET in Kentucky and Indiana. Results will not be final for all races on election night. Close contests in various states may require days or even weeks to resolve as officials count ballots. Patience is required as the process unfolds.
The final tally will determine which party controls the House and whether the Senate leadership changes hands. The data already collected provides a clear baseline for the night's events. Voters in the remaining jurisdictions will decide the final margins in key districts.
Source: Central Florida Public Media
