Arabs hold keys to Israel's fractured parliament after vote

Nineteen members of the new Israeli parliament belong to parties representing the country's minority Arab community, nearly doubling their previous representation in the Knesset. This bloc now holds the balance of power in a legislature where neither major candidate secured a clear mandate to govern. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition claimed 53 seats in the 120-member body during last week's election. Gadi Eisenkot, his main rival, won 48 seats. Neither figure commands a majority, leaving the path to a new government unclear and forcing a reliance on the Arab faction that both men had previously dismissed as a potential partner.

President Isaac Herzog, who serves a largely ceremonial role, is tasked with deciding which leader gets the first attempt at forming a cabinet. He scheduled initial consultations with party officials for Wednesday, kicking off a process that may stretch for weeks. Herzog urged politicians to approach these talks with an open heart, a sentiment he expanded upon in a statement on Sunday. He asked representatives to listen, share ideas, and find creative solutions to avoid another round of voting. The president emphasized that the election results are a fact and a reality that leaders must now face rather than continue to dispute.

Eisenkot has signaled a willingness to work with parties that agree to four specific conditions. These requirements include recognizing Israel as a Jewish state, committing to the values of its independence, accepting mandatory military service for all citizens, and recognizing Hamas as a terrorist organization. Eisenkot stated on Saturday that any Knesset member willing to sign on to these principles is a potential partner. He described the door to the government he intends to form as open to every public representative who accepts these standards and is ready to rise to the occasion. This stance contrasts with Netanyahu, who continued to attack the Arab parties on Sunday, calling it forbidden to form a government with Mansour Abbas, the head of the Arab-led party Ra'am.

Netanyahu cited an old Ra'am policy platform on X, arguing that Abbas seeks to establish a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital and to evacuate Israeli settlements in the occupied territories. During the campaign, Netanyahu's Likud party frequently alleged that Eisenkot would hand power to the Arab parties. One AI-generated video posted by Netanyahu depicted Eisenkot riding a wooden Trojan horse with Abbas and left-wing politician Yair Golan inside. Abbas denied wrongdoing and said on Friday that he is coordinating with other Arab leaders on the prospects for replacing the government led by Netanyahu. He strongly denied claims that his party used foreign backing to steal the election, a charge Netanyahu made without providing evidence.

The internal dynamics of the anti-Netanyahu bloc present their own challenges. Eisenkot's coalition includes a wide range of ideologies, from Golan, who has advocated for a deal with the Arab parties, to Avigdor Lieberman of the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party, who still opposes such cooperation. This friction creates a real possibility of a stalemate that could lead to fresh elections. Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, told NBC News that Israel appears stuck. He noted that Eisenkot's conditions effectively ask the Arab parties to forsake their identity. Gerges predicted that the opposition led by Eisenkot will not form a government, describing the current situation as a deadlock.

Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, sees a different path forward. He believes flexibility could yield a breakthrough. Mekelberg observed that parties make many promises before an election and it is obvious that they break at least some of them afterward. Israeli intelligence agency Shin Bet announced it is investigating possible foreign interference in the election. The agency clarified that the probe was not intended to cast aspersions on any specific group. Netanyahu remains in his post as a caretaker until a new government can be formed.

The political landscape in Israel is defined by the tension between these competing factions. The Arab party leaders have pushed for a government to replace the one led by Netanyahu. Eisenkot's conditions remain a central point of negotiation. The process begins with Herzog's consultations on Wednesday. The outcome will determine whether Israel moves forward with a new government or returns to the polls.