Israel Votes as Neither Major Bloc Appears Likely to Reach 61 Seats

Neither of Israel's two leading political blocs is projected to secure the 61 Knesset seats required to form a majority government, setting the stage for extended coalition negotiations after Tuesday's election. Polls released on Friday show incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot in a near tie. The close margin suggests that the outcome will depend on smaller parties and complex alliance deals rather than a decisive mandate for either leader.

The campaign centered on security and democratic institutions. Opposition parties criticized Netanyahu for the security failures preceding the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks, which killed nearly 1,200 people and left 251 hostages in Gaza. Netanyahu countered by highlighting what he described as strategic military victories and his close relationship with US President Donald Trump. Eisenkot, leading the newly formed Yashar Party, positioned himself as a stabilizing alternative. His change bloc includes right-wing leaders Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, as well as left-leaning former general Yair Golan.

Recent developments intensified the pre-election tension. On Sunday, Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu sought a last-minute military confrontation with Iran, a move opposed by his military chief Eyal Zamir. The next day, CNN reported that Netanyahu tried to persuade Trump to authorize new strikes on Iran, though the US president reportedly refused. Netanyahu denied both reports. He also posted an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb striking Tel Aviv, warning that he alone could protect Israel if Iran acquired nuclear weapons. Eisenkot labeled the image hysterical.

Issues of conscription and judicial reform also dominated the final days. Netanyahu's government failed to enforce a Supreme Court ruling requiring full-time religious students to serve in the military, a decision that drew criticism given current combat demands. The opposition pointed to Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial and his judicial reform plans as threats to democracy. The Israeli military has killed more than 74,000 people in Gaza since the start of the war, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. Israel has continued striking Gaza daily since last year's ceasefire, citing the targeting of Hamas operatives.

Approximately 70,000 Israelis flew home from abroad to cast ballots. Broadcasters will publish exit polls at 22:00 local time on Tuesday. While these polls offer an early indication of voting trends, they can vary. Results will begin trickling in as parties gather in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Many soldiers and reservists are also voting, but a large portion of those ballots will not be counted until Wednesday. This delay may benefit right-wing parties that have strong support among military personnel.

If no bloc reaches 61 seats, Israel faces the risk of political deadlock. In that scenario, new elections would be called, and Netanyahu would remain interim prime minister. The country experienced five separate elections between 2019 and 2022 due to similar struggles to form governing coalitions. The current vote marks another attempt to break that cycle.