Netanyahu's Bloc Falls Short as Arab Parties Set Records

Final election results released early Friday confirmed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition failed to secure a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats, while the main opposition bloc captured 48. Arab-led parties took the remaining 19 seats, a historic performance that now places them in the center of intense government formation talks.

The path to a working government requires a coalition of at least 61 members. This arithmetic forces parties with often divergent platforms to negotiate. Centrist politician Yair Lapid described the upcoming period on X as "the truly hard part" and asked Israelis for patience. The president will officially task a candidate with forming a government once results are certified next Wednesday. That candidate could be Netanyahu, who received the most votes, or another leader chosen by the various party heads.

Tensions rose in the hours before the final count when Netanyahu and his Likud party amplified claims that Arab-led parties had stolen the election with foreign assistance. The opposition accused Netanyahu of demonizing the 20% of the population that is Arab, many of whom voted in high numbers in response to policies by his far-right allies. In his first public comment on Friday, Netanyahu posted on X that it is forbidden to form a coalition with Arab parties.

The head of Israel’s election committee, Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, stated that "serious suspicions" of foreign interference had been raised. He asked the Shin Bet security agency to investigate but noted he could not verify the claims. Acting director general Dean Livne warned that reports about the investigation were "entirely unfounded" and said the probe was based on classified intelligence. The Shin Bet stated its investigation was not meant to cast aspersions on a specific population that voted in a democratic manner.

The new Knesset is expected to be sworn in on Nov. 10. Once it convenes, the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot could join forces with Arab parties to elect a new speaker. This would give them control over the parliamentary agenda, allowing them to advance legislation before a new government is formed. If multiple attempts to form a government fail, Israel faces a new election early next year. President Isaac Herzog said this week he will do everything in his power to avoid that scenario.

Qatar, which Netanyahu’s party accused of aiding Arab-led parties, called the allegations "ridiculous and dangerous." The election committee has requested findings from the Shin Bet within a week. The committee also wrote to a member of parliament that "allegations of systematic violations of electoral integrity are baseless." Netanyahu has suggested that joining with Arab parties would be treasonous for his chief rival Eisenkot.

Hundreds of Israelis have held rallies urging Eisenkot and other opposition leaders to partner with the Arab-led parties. This alliance has occurred only once before, briefly in 2021. If Netanyahu loses office, he will face yearslong corruption allegations and an inquiry into security failures before the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7, 2023.