Florida voters decide open governor's race amid national midterm stakes

Polls in Tarpon Springs, Clearwater, Largo, and Pinellas Park are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. today, marking the start of a decisive election day for Florida residents. According to Ballotpedia, the state is divided between the Eastern and Central time zones, and voters can confirm their specific polling locations at vote.gov. Anyone in line when the polls close is entitled to cast a ballot. The day’s focus is heavily on the state’s executive leadership, as Florida holds an open seat for governor with no incumbent on the ballot. Parties represented in this race include the Democratic, Libertarian, No Party Affiliation, and Republican parties. This contest is part of a broader national midterm cycle that occurs halfway through President Donald Trump’s second term.

The Associated Press describes the current election as a referendum on the president’s second term, noting that many voters are struggling with high prices and are angry over an unpopular war with Iran. Recent polling from AP-NORC indicates that 35 percent of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s job performance, while only 25 percent approve of his handling of the economy. Approximately seven in ten adults say the country is heading in the wrong direction. In Florida, the competitive nature of the governor’s race reflects these national sentiments. The Associated Press specifically identifies Florida as a competitive governor race, alongside Texas and Iowa. Democrats hope to hold a majority of governorships for the first time in two decades, while Republicans are fighting to maintain their current lead, which they have held since 2010.

Florida voters are also deciding on three statewide constitutional amendments that will appear on the ballot. Amendment 1 addresses budget stabilization by increasing the amount of funds that may be retained in the budget stabilization fund from 10 percent to 25 percent of net general revenue. Amendment 2 concerns agriculture and tax exemptions, specifically proposing to exempt agricultural-related tangible personal property, such as farm equipment or tools, from property taxes. Amendment 3 deals with local government and property taxes, proposing to increase the homestead tax exemption, decrease the cap on how much the assessed value of non-homestead properties can increase, and limit how municipalities can spend property tax revenue. These measures offer residents in Pinellas County and across the state a direct say in fiscal policy and local taxation.

Every U.S. House seat in Florida is on the ballot today, along with state and local offices and measures that vary by county. The state is using new congressional maps following mid-decade redistricting, a change that affects six states including Florida. Ballotpedia notes that the results of these House races will determine who controls the chamber for the president’s final two years. Nationwide, Democrats need a net gain of three districts to secure a majority in the House, while Republicans can lose no more than two seats. The Associated Press reports that one or two seats could tip the balance of either chamber, making the turnout in key districts like those in the Tampa Bay area crucial to the final outcome.

The race for governor is part of a nationwide contest involving 36 governorships. Heading into this election, Republicans hold 26 governor’s offices and Democrats hold 24. Of the offices currently on the ballot, each party holds 18. Nineteen of these races have no incumbent on the ballot, with 15 governors being term-limited. In Florida, the absence of an incumbent allows for a fresh contest between the major parties and third-party challengers. The Associated Press notes that Republicans were bracing to lose the House and fighting to hold the Senate, while Democrats were cautiously optimistic about their chances. This midterm election is likely to be the most expensive in history, with Republican committees outraising and outspending Democratic committees at the committee level, though Democrats outraised their opponents at the candidate level.

The national picture includes 35 of 100 U.S. Senate seats being decided. While Florida is not holding a regular Senate election this year, the state has a special election for the remainder of the term Marco Rubio was elected to in 2022. Ballotpedia lists Ashley B. Moody as the incumbent Republican candidate for this special seat. The Associated Press notes that the Trump administration filed a lawsuit in Alaska related to the certification of the Senate result, a move that has drawn attention to election procedures. In the House, all 435 seats are up for grabs, with Republicans currently holding 218 seats and Democrats 214. The high stakes of these federal races have led to intense campaigning, with President Trump holding dozens of rallies, including one in Salina, Kansas, where he urged voters to pretend he was on the ballot.

Election administration has been a focal point in the lead-up to today’s vote. A federal judge temporarily barred the Trump administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting, a move critics say risks disenfranchising eligible voters. Another judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that California election officials segregate ballots cast by people on lists of suspected noncitizens. The U.S. Postal Service added hours, staff, and special lines to ensure mail ballots are counted on time. These administrative moves are part of a broader context where the administration has continued to make claims about voting fraud, including that noncitizens vote in large numbers. Democrats have expressed concern about potential interference and intimidation as the Justice Department threatens to prosecute local election officials.